Diamond of Data

Posted on by conley

The Diamond Princess may be a gift in retrospect to have an objective understanding of how the coronavirus spreads & its impact on a population.


There were 712 passengers and crew who tested positive out of 3,500+ total people on board. As of today, 10 have died, 597 recovered, 105 are active and 15 are in serious/critical condition. This statistic was the same yesterday, March 26, 2020.


The majority of fatality statistics are focused on measuring deaths as a percentage of those infected. However, the tests are measuring the existence of the virus itself in the person’s body…we do not have a test, yet, that can detect antibodies, which are the “leftovers” from white blood cells killing the virus. 
Since everyone on the ship was in close proximity for an extended period of time, shared the same food sources, and shared the same air recycling system (which was not HEPA filtered like airplanes), it is a reasonable assumption that ALL 3,500 people were exposed. 


Some people are more likely to develop an infection from exposure than others. It looks like about 712/3500 = 20% of people have a propensity to become infected. But the other side of this implication is that 80% of people who are exposed either do not become infected, or they were infected and their immune system cleared the threat before they were tested. This also relates to why about 331 of the 712 were asymptomatic when tested. Given a little more time, those 331 would have tested NEGATIVE, since the virus would no longer be in their body, but there would be residual antibodies…but we cannot yet test for antibodies.


The implication is that out of 3,500 exposed people, only 10 have died so far. If we assume that the 15 in critical condition don’t make it, that would take us to 25 out of 3,500, or 0.7%…about what you’d expect of the regular flu.  However, there are still 105 people who are not yet recovered, but not critical either. We should also note that the population of the Diamond Princess is heavily skewed to the older side of the population, so these rates should be materially lower if age-adjusted for the general population.
We should watch the fate of those 105 + 15 closely, as their outcome should be very indicative of the true fatality rate that the population as a whole should expect over time.  The data is listed here: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
For reference here’s an update on Diamond Princess:
https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/24/us/diamond-princess-cruise-ship-asymptomatic-tests/index.html
The revision provided today is consistent with the Diamond Princess argument:https://www.dailywire.com/news/epidemiologist-behind-highly-cited-coronavirus-model-admits-he-was-wrong-drastically-revises-model

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